It will blow up: fears Myanmar’s deadly crackdown on Muslims will spiral out of control

Militancy in Rakhine state is not a recent phenomenon. Muslim movements demanding an autonomous region in northern Rakhine cropped up throughout the latter half of the 20th century. These included the Rohingya Solidarity Organisation (RSO), thought to have been defunct since the 2000s.

A transcript of an audio recording obtained by a source familiar with the Rohingya diaspora and shared with the Guardian features a man saying the people involved are not only RSO.

The man, believed to be an ethnic Rohingya living abroad, describes the 9 October attacks as a big success.

These are our people and the system of the people is working well, he says, stressing that help can be sent through an underground network of individuals.

They [Myanmar military] looked down on us, ignored us and kept silence by saying that our kalars [a derogatory term for Muslims] do not have anything. Insha Allah, we succeeded.

Speaking a few days after the release of the government statement, Ehsan Ullah Batth, Pakistans ambassador to Myanmar, said he had received no actionable information about Pakistani involvement.

Of an alleged accomplice the government named Kalis, purportedly Pakistani, he said: I dont find any such name in Pakistan.

While connections to international organisations may be uncovered, the demands of the videos are locally focused: liberation of Rohingya from the camps, restoration of citizenship and property.

Richard Horsey, a Yangon-based political analyst, says: I think what is important to stress is that so far the modus operandi of the attackers has been similar to the old RSO and other insurgent groups, not terrorism that is, attacks have been on security targets, not civilians or religious sites.

Matthew Smith, founder and chief executive of non-profit Fortify Rights, agrees. The militants dont appear to be well-organised or well-armed, and theyre tiny compared to dozens of other armed groups or militias in the country, he says.

If this [Rohingya militancy] is a strategy to negotiate with the army, and to have a seat at the table alongside other ethnic armies in the peace process, its profoundly ill-conceived.

We fear the military will unleash an unprecedented wrath on northern Rakhine state, and that wont bode well for Rohingya rights.

In the displacement camp outside Sittwe, Kyaw Hla Aung says Rohingya leaders were recently called to a meeting with the military. We submitted to them that, in Sittwe, our people didnt involve in this case.

Past the army base and razor-wire fences that divide the camps from Rakhine Buddhist neighbourhoods, the Muslim ghetto in downtown Sittwe is racked with fear.

We are doing security for the quarter by ourselves, says one Rohingya leader during a few snatched moments of conversation out of sight of a plainclothes police officer.

We are not sleeping at night, we sleep in the morning, wake up in the evening. After the Maungdaw attacks, we are afraid someone will take revenge.

Additional reporting by Aung Naing Soe.